HIV Vaccine and the Kind of Happy Scientists

In a tentatively optimistic article, researchers report that in Thailand a study has just finished testing a vaccine that lowers the rate of HIV infection by 31.2%¹. They modestly point out that the vaccine is safe and that it shows some effectiveness. I, on the other hand, find 31.2% an extremely exciting number – it’s not 100%, nor even close to 100%, but when you look at the big picture, even a sort-of-successful trial such as this one should be reason for celebration.

First of all, this isn’t an AIDS vaccine. They’re working on those, too; in Science they just published an article last week about a “surprising” AIDs vaccine which is currently being “pondered” (if only I could gain access to that article! I’ll hack you yet!). An AIDs vaccine is something that the 7,397 people who contract HIV each day are hoping for². And I really hope they find it, but an HIV vaccine offers something more.

If we ignore the social issues which accompany the idea of mass dissemination of an HIV vaccine (such as monetary shortages, etc., etc.), then a vaccine, such as this one, which is currently only 31.2% effective still has staggering implications. Instead of 7,397 people being infected every day with HIV, that number would be closer to 5089.That means that each year, 842,420 people would be saved from contracting HIV.

So maybe it is not 100%. And, despite the vaccine’s promise, it doesn’t actually reduce the viral load in those who do contract it¹. This means that for the 51 people in the study who actually did contract the virus while on the vaccine, there was absolutely no benefit for having been on the medication. It’s an all-or-nothing situation it would seem, though their proof-of-concept study 6 years ago demonstrated its ability to lower the HIV virus count of those infected.

But it’s the positive results that count. Based on the scale of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, numbers really are important. Had this vaccine been distributed throughout the world a generation ago, then 10,296,000 people (31.2% of the 33,000,000 million² people currently living with HIV/AIDS) would not be infected. This vaccine doesn’t stop, or even slow, the process of HIV to AIDS to death, but instead halts this process at its very beginning – contraction. 31.2%? Well, with more research that number is only going to get better.

The science side of things is well on its way. Now we only have to figure out how to make it affordable. How to make sure that people take it properly. How to convince those religious folk that preventing STIs isn’t going to make our little girls promiscuous (I’ll see your condom and raise you a Gardasil!). How to distribute it to people without health insurance. How to get it to Africa, where an estimated 75% of world AIDS deaths occurred in 2007².

Oh silly social issues. What are we going to do with you?


EDIT: was able to nab that Science article. It's reporting on the same study: the "surprising" result was that though clinical trials showed it was likely to reduce viral load *(mentioned above) and therefore protect against AIDS, instead it protected against HIV. Hmm. That is something worth pondering.
(HIV/AIDS Research. Jon Cohen (2 October 2009) Science 326 (5949), 26. [DOI: 10.1126/science.326_26]))


Sources

1.  "HIV Vaccine Study First to Show Some Effectiveness in Preventing HIV." AIDS Vaccine Week (Oct 5, 2009): 11. General OneFile. Gale. UNIVERSITY OF TORONTO. 8 Oct. 2009.

2.  UNAIDS, Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic, July 2008 .